11PM Friday 2.17.12
What a complicated weather setup we have for the second half of our weekend!!
The latest data has come in, and still leaves a lot of questions on this impending winter weather event. The latest NAM & GFS models both keep Louisville precipitation-free (no snow or rain)… with the best chances of precipitation south of the W KY and Bluegrass Parkways.
The other problem: the GFS has a warm layer of air which may prevent a changeover to snow IF the precipitation is not heavy enough to allow temperatures to fall below freezing in the lowest layers of the atmosphere.
Meanwhile, another one of our models has the wintry precipitation as far north as southern Indiana… but it is an outlier at this point in time.
The bottom line… we are going to keep our forecast from earlier today… of up to 1″ in Louisville to 2-4″ southeast of the Parkways… going for tonight. We’ll let the models update again through tomorrow morning and make a final assessment on this weather maker.
Just keep in mind that we still expect snow for our southeastern counties for Sunday, but it is highly in question just how far north that snow makes it and whether Louisville will see any.