12PM Saturday 4/14/12
Well, it’s certainly a good weekend to NOT be in the Plains as a big tornado day seems to be shaping up from Nebraska to Texas. Around here, today’s shower and storm chances will continue to be focused along and north of the river, but most if not all will remain non-severe. Heavy downpours and lightning are the big threats with today’s t’showers.
What a windy and very warm day setting up for tomorrow folks!
Today’s showers will lift well north into MI/OH tomorrow with warm air flooding in behind it. 80s (perhaps mid 80s) and a stiff south wind will make it feel like a blast furnace after our recent cool spell!
The pollen count will also be off the charts tomorrow… keep that in mind.
That leads me to the subject of this discussion.
Tomorrow, the SPC has a slight risk of thunderstorms to our west… here’s their map. This forecasts severe weather from 8AM Sunday through 8AM Monday…Note that there is NO risk of thunderstorms for our viewing area on this outlook. Well, that would be correct for Sunday and much of Sunday night, but considering this outlook is valid through 8AM Monday leaves me wondering how that is possible. Our most recent models do bring us a round of rain and storms inside the viewing area after 4AM Monday. IF this is the correct timing for storms to get here, they would be arriving with some pretty solid potential for at least gusty winds. Here’s why…
– Temperatures well in the 60s and dew points at or above 60 supportive of thunderstorms to continue developing and growing (instability)
– Models tend to under-forecast temperatures and there is a possibility we don’t fall much below 70 Sunday night
– Wind shear is very high, both in the low layers and through the depth of the cloud
The three above notes point to a threat for severe weather early Monday if the storms indeed get here at that point in time. Some models have a later timing, which may promote storm development in our eastern counties Monday afternoon. BUT by then our strongest wind energy will be leaving, so that would be a better case scenario. It’s just too early to tell. We should get a better idea today.
So to summarize, not set in stone yet but I do see the potential for some severe weather around here sometime Monday… with the best chances west of I-65 closer to the better instability and wind shear. We will keep watching and update you as we get closer.
For now, keep an eye on the weather reports from the Plains today because that’s where all the attention needs to go for now. Hoping for the best for those folks!