Prediction: March 2012 To Be One Of Top Ten Warmest

10:30AM 3.10.12

Are you ready for May in March?

That’s what’s about to set up for our weather the next ten days or so. We will see increasingly warm weather through the next several days, with highs approaching 80 Wednesday and then potentially again next weekend.

Here’s the setup:

Upper Air Pattern 5 Days From Now...

A large ridge of upper high pressure will bump up over the southeastern United States this week. This is really a continuation to our warmer than normal weather we’ve seen this winter. Only now, with the higher sun angle of March, we will be able to really capitalize on this warm air above the ground and bring us the warmest air of 2012 so far for a multiple-day (week?) stretch beginning this coming week.

The map above shows lots of yellows and oranges over our part of the country. That indicates the atmosphere is warmer than it should be for the time of year. That map is effective 5 days from now, or Wednesday afternoon.

This is when I expect highs to peak at right around 80 degrees.

Question is, will this pattern break down or continue to amplify and keep us warm?

Upper Air Pattern 10 Days From Now...

Whoa! That’s even warmer for us… 10 days from now or next Monday the 19th!! It shows a massive trough of cold weather over the west and lots of extreme chill over Alaska. Around here, we stay warm and overall very quiet.

An overview of expected temperatures the next ten to twelve days… Widespread 60s, 70s, to near 80 degree temperatures with 70s more common than 60s through the 20th of March at least!

Compare our forecast highs this week with those of Destin, FL…

Louisville:  MON (70) TUE (75) WED (79) THU (74) FRI (76)
Destin, FL: MON (71) TUE (73) WED (73) THU (71) FRI (71)

Yep, spring breakers in Florida will experience somewhat cooler temperatures than here at home because the Gulf of Mexico is still cool this time of year… which keeps coastal areas cooler than inland locations. Spring break at home this year perhaps?

With this in mind, plus the fact that above normal temperatures are expected through the end of March, there is a good chance this will be one of the 10 warmest months of March on record. There is an outside chance of a top-5 warmest March if the 70s continue past March 20th.

Of course this warmth combined with the quiet weather associated with this pattern is a great opportunity to get storm ravaged areas cleaned up… plus you can expect spring foliage to appear on trees and bushes over the next ten days. This is very similar to 2007’s weather pattern… the 5th warmest March ever.

Also remember what happened in early April 2007? We had severe weather on a strong cold front followed by a hard freeze, which hurt a lot of early-blooming trees and flowers. This IS possible again this year and I DON’T think we’ve seen our last frost/freeze. It’s just too early for that yet.

This pattern will eventually break down and active weather with temperature swings will return, but as we approach April these swings in temperatures will not be as severe or long-lived, signaling a real beginning to the time of year when warm air gets to be more common than cold.



About Jared Heil

Meteorologist at WLKY-TV in Louisville, KY. Catch Jared's forecast Saturday nights at 6 & 11PM. Jared Heil has always lived in the Louisville area. He was born and raised in Henryville, Ind., about 20 minutes north of downtown Louisville. Jared is thrilled to be forecasting the weather in his hometown. Jared hopes that his knowledge of the Greater Louisville area, stemming from living here his entire life, will prove to be helpful during times of active weather. You may see Jared at the University of Louisville, where he is continuing his studies in the Atmospheric Science program. Jared is a member of the American Meteorological Society. In his free time, Jared enjoys spending time with his family and friends. He has two golden retrievers, Max and Gordon. Jared says that growing up on his family’s farm led him to appreciate nature in all its forms, likely leading to his passion for weather at a very early age. While he appreciates the occasional thunderstorm, Jared’s favorite weather is sunshine and 80 degrees. Add in the palm trees and it’s easy to see why Jared’s favorite vacation destination is Florida!
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One Response to Prediction: March 2012 To Be One Of Top Ten Warmest

  1. christeon kincaid says:

    This is just the weather that is leading up to the end of the earth

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