Severe Threat For Tomorrow… 10:30PM Update

10:45PM Thursday

I just want to stress that folks across the viewing area need to keep tuned to WLKY tomorrow and also go to WLKY.com and our Facebook page @louisvilleweather for the latest updates.

The new NAM model has come in this evening with some precipitation ahead of the line of storms in the afternoon especially from the parkways northward…

2PM: Sct'd Storms... Some Severe?

Then the front arrives in the late afternoon and early evening with scattered storms lining up on the boundary:

4 to 8PM: Broken line of storms in the viewing area

Earlier I mentioned that the models will have to make a call on whether the energy and front wins out and pops storms or if they develop east of us because of a lid or warm cap developing in the middle atmosphere. Now it looks like this model of the NAM wants to go ahead and pop the storms.

Just coming in now is the GFS model… which really deepens the low pressure area in NW Indiana and pushes the front through by about 2 hours quicker than the NAM. Although it does not fire up as much stormy weather on the front, I can sort of see where it is trying to do so by the looks of the moisture fields. This will have to be watched – because if the low is this strong, undoubtedly the amount of forcing and wind shear on the boundary may cause storms to develop even in circumstances where they otherwise may not be able to.

As mentioned, once storms develop tomorrow the likelihood of them becoming severe is high. Once we can fully assert the timing of when, if, and where exactly storms will develop, we will be able to get a better feel for our exact threats. For now – we watch for possibly hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes to be all in the mix if these storms indeed fire like the newest models are perhaps suggesting.

Much more info as we get it —

–Jared

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About Jared Heil

Meteorologist at WLKY-TV in Louisville, KY. Catch Jared's forecast Saturday nights at 6 & 11PM. Jared Heil has always lived in the Louisville area. He was born and raised in Henryville, Ind., about 20 minutes north of downtown Louisville. Jared is thrilled to be forecasting the weather in his hometown. Jared hopes that his knowledge of the Greater Louisville area, stemming from living here his entire life, will prove to be helpful during times of active weather. You may see Jared at the University of Louisville, where he is continuing his studies in the Atmospheric Science program. Jared is a member of the American Meteorological Society. In his free time, Jared enjoys spending time with his family and friends. He has two golden retrievers, Max and Gordon. Jared says that growing up on his family’s farm led him to appreciate nature in all its forms, likely leading to his passion for weather at a very early age. While he appreciates the occasional thunderstorm, Jared’s favorite weather is sunshine and 80 degrees. Add in the palm trees and it’s easy to see why Jared’s favorite vacation destination is Florida!
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