Update: Severe Potential

1:45PM Thursday 2/23/12

What a nice afternoon it is turning out to be! Warm temperatures, sunshine, and a bit of a southeast breeze.

Temperatures are responding into the 60s… so this warmth will be available for storms to develop this afternoon.

Also, there is a lot of wind energy heading our way… and a low pressure system is moving in from the west:

Low Pressure Over MO Now

This low pressure area is moving eastward now and will make a track right for our viewing area by this evening. Also notice how we have southeasterly winds. A warm front is bisecting the state of Kentucky, but the deeper moisture lies farther south in Tennessee.

Surface Conditions at 1PM

Click on the map for a non-distorted view. Dew points rise into the 50s over western Kentucky, and stay in the 50s over middle and west Tennessee.

Dew points really need to jump into the lower 50s for strong convection to be possible, with mid/upper 50s more troubling.

At this point, we expect the dew points to rise at or above 50 along and south of the warm front, which will head to just north of the OH River by this evening.

We are already watching a band of clouds over MO/IL/ & W KY…

Cloud Cover 1PM

This cloudiness is the leading edge of some low level moisture and wind energy heading toward the area. Thus clouds will head northeast and expand… and it may very well be beneath this cloud deck where storms develop in the deeper moisture and leading nose of stronger winds leading to converging and rising air motion.

Thus – the SPC weather outlook, still looks good from the earlier post with a slight severe risk area wide. IF storms develop in our northern half of the area, these would be the prime suspects for isolated tornadoes since the atmosphere in those locations (along and north of I-64) have the BEST wind energy and shear. However, dew points are lower in these areas which may help us mitigate the potential in those areas.

Yep… bottom line… this is not a guarantee of storms. We’ll just watch to see if the pieces fall together or not for some storms later this afternoon.

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About Jared Heil

Meteorologist at WLKY-TV in Louisville, KY. Catch Jared's forecast Saturday nights at 6 & 11PM. Jared Heil has always lived in the Louisville area. He was born and raised in Henryville, Ind., about 20 minutes north of downtown Louisville. Jared is thrilled to be forecasting the weather in his hometown. Jared hopes that his knowledge of the Greater Louisville area, stemming from living here his entire life, will prove to be helpful during times of active weather. You may see Jared at the University of Louisville, where he is continuing his studies in the Atmospheric Science program. Jared is a member of the American Meteorological Society. In his free time, Jared enjoys spending time with his family and friends. He has two golden retrievers, Max and Gordon. Jared says that growing up on his family’s farm led him to appreciate nature in all its forms, likely leading to his passion for weather at a very early age. While he appreciates the occasional thunderstorm, Jared’s favorite weather is sunshine and 80 degrees. Add in the palm trees and it’s easy to see why Jared’s favorite vacation destination is Florida!
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