Hi folks, wow what a great day today… the so called calm before the storm due to strike mainly tomorrow night into Sunday. The track of the storm seems to be a bit more clear now. The models have done their adjustments / northward trends for the last couple of days now (with even a few runs adjusting back south again). It looks like the the storm will get cranking in the vicinity of southwest LA Saturday afternoon and then track northeast into northeast GA by Sunday afternoon with the energy then “jumping” to the mid-Atlantic coast where a new low will take over by Sunday evening (something that often occurs in system like this). Check out the 4 following charts… the first 2 are from this morning’s run of the NAM and GFS valid 1pm Saturday. The second 2 are from the NAM & GFS valid 1pm Sunday.
Now the charts for 1pm Sunday…
Okay now let’s look at the snow charts: This first one is from today’s 12z run of the NAM:
Here’s last night’s 06z run from the NAM… notice the consistency of the snow band:
Here’s the snow chart from last night’s 06z run of the GFS…
I think it’s safe to say that this appears it’s going to be primarily a Kentucky storm Eastern KY getting hammered) with little or no snow as you travel north into Indiana. So with the data I have right now I like a trace up to 1 inch for the metro. But snowfall rates are expected to rapidly increase as you travel south and east from Louisville. For example, I like 1 to 2 inches possible for places such as Radcliff, Mt. Washington, and Shelbyville. 3 to 6 inches possible from near the parkways and points south (including E’town, Bardstown, Munfordville, Greensburg, Lebanon, Campbellsville, and Lexington. Farther east, southeast (near and east of the I-75 corridor – Somerset and points east) I like 6 to 12 inches of snow. Finally, in the higher elevations of eastern KY… over a foot of havy wet snow possible where some power outages will be possible.
I will say this… I’m not totally convinced yet that this track is set in stone. I know there’s a lot of recent consistency between the models in this track, but the one thing that bothers me is the system is still over old Mexico where the raob/weather data network isn’t the best. I still wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see this thing jog a little farther north yet. I’ve seen it happen before ! I’ll keep you posted gang… Have a great day and enjoy the beautiful weather !