Southern Storm Trending North…

Thursday, February 16th

Hello all, hope you day is going well… Quiet weather resuming the next couple of days as this first system continues working out of the region and before the next system begins impacting us later Saturday through Sunday morning.

Let’s get right to it… This is the next system we’re watching… the next 2 charts show a comparison between the NAM model (right hand side of the charts) to that of the GFS. Top maps are 1pm today, bottom maps 1am Sunday.

Basically prettty darn good agreement between the 2 models. The NAM looks a bit stronger with it’s upper system as it is showing more of a negative tilt by early Sunday morning (which has serious impacts on the amount of snow it generates) – but overall, good agreement.  Initially, this system does not have any cold air to work with so Ptype would begin as rain later Saturday / Saturday evening. But, as some phasing (not complete) takes place with the northern stream, enough cold air would be pulled intothe system to create a changeover to wet snow Saturday late night into Sunday morning on the northern edge of the precip shield.  This would place the state of KY in a favorable zone for some accumulations (possibly significant) of wet snow with amounts quickly diminishing as you go north of the Ohio River.  So how much??? that’s the million dollar question and there’s NO WAY to pin it doen right now !! No b.s. here, that’s just the facts !! The exact track of the system is still unknown, the amount of phasing between the northern and southern streams still unknown, not to mention we’re still more than 2 days (48 hours) away from this event occurring .

Here are the NAM and GFS snow charts (NAM first)…

Look at the difference in snow amounts over the state of KY !!!   Very significant and again, directly related to the amount of phasing taking place between the northern jet and southern jet. NAM has more so it has colder air to work with and hence produces more snow.   The thing to take away from this blog post today is, another storm system looks like it is now going to impact us this weekend.  Rain and some wet snow now looks probable later Saturday into Sunday morning. Accumulations of wet snow are certainly possible with the way it stands right now…. the heaviest of the snowfall would occur south and east of Louisville.  I do think this track will change some though. The trend has been to tack the system farther north with each model run. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see this northward adjustment continuing over the next 2 model runs or so with the main reasoning being, the NAO is positive and trending up during this event and the polar jet across the N.E. United States is slowly retreating as the system is coming out.  The one big question remains the amount of phasing that’ll take place with this system during or just prior to impacting us.  Folks, we’ll keep you posted… Snow lovers it’s probably a good time to start praying to those snow gods.  Have a great day all and more later.

Jay C

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About Jay Cardosi

Chief Meteorologist of WLKY-TV in Louisville, KY. Over 20 years of experience and winner of 4 emmy awards for excellence in weather forecasting and severe weather coverage.
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One Response to Southern Storm Trending North…

  1. Lucy says:

    Our family will definitely keep watching the blog to find out. Thanks for the update. Hoping for a big snow and a northern trend. We enjoy the in depth blog reports. Keep them coming.

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