Sorry for the lack of updates this past weekend but when you’ve got 2 teenage daughters and a sportscrazy 6th grade boy – weather comes second. If you’ve been reading our posts the last week or so then you already know that we’ve been watching the snow maker slated for tonight for quite some time now. Classic overrunning precip event on the way for tonight. Cold air will still be in place as an upper disturbance rides along the jet and cruises into the Ohio Valley for tonight.
Increasing moisture and WAA (warm air advection) – on a low level jet of 50 kts + at both H9 and H85 aimed at our region, will provide the neccesary ingredients to bring us some accumulating snow tonight.
Mid and high clouds will rapidly thicken this afternoon but the much drier low layers of the atmosphere will prevent any precipitation from occurring during the daylight hours. Once the lower layers moisten up and saturate, precip will finally begin reaching the ground in the form of snow but this is not expected to occur until later this evening (closer to midnight around Louisville). Some warmer air will advect into the region later tonight and early tomorrow so precip may mix or even change to light rain south of Louisville. As the mid levels of the atmosphere dry out tomorrow morning, the light snow and rain across the region will diminish to drizzle with temperatures climbing well above freezing.
As far as amounts are concerned, certainly not a big snow thinking about an inch to locally 2 from near I-64 and points north (with the better chances for localized 2 inch amounts being north of Louisville). South of I-64… up to an inch possible with amounts tapering the farther south from Louisville you go. Another update when the complete 12z data suite comes in.
Beyond this… looking a bit milder with a rain chance coming in Wednesday night into early Thursday.