How Much Snow Monday Night? Not Too Much…

5:30PM Sunday 2/12/12

Hopefully you had a good weekend!

We’re getting geared up for an active weather pattern this week… which will keep the clouds around for much of the next several days. Hope you got to take in some sunshine today… even if it was from a window!

The first little weather maker headed our way arrives Monday night.

NAM Model Showing Light Precip Monday Night

Some light precipitation will overspread the area after dark tomorrow evening.. potentially even after midnight… ending in earnest by mid morning Tuesday.

The total precipitation amounts are meager, at best, with most models painting about 0.10″ to 0.15″ of precipitation tops. And the trend is downward with total precipitation. So that’s the first indication that this will not be a blockbuster weather event.

Here’s the other thing. Temperatures will be warmer too, in the lower 30s for Monday night. Some models even bring a warm layer of air over the area which may turn our southern counties over to a period of rain for a time. Of course if this warmer layer of air were to make it to Louisville, we could see either some light rain or freezing rain depending on whether we were above or below freezing at the ground. At this point, it seems plausible that most of the precipitation from the BG / WK Parkways northward  should fall as snow.

So, with this in mind, areas that see snow should expect a 10:1 snow ratio… meaning 10″ snow for every 1″ liquid. Since we’re only expecting (see above) 0.10″ to 0.15″ liquid to fall, at best, we’re talking about an inch or so of snow.

Will this cause problems for the Tuesday AM commute? Perhaps. Keep in mind that road surface temperatures are much colder now because of the recent chilly temperatures… and without sunshine tomorrow afternoon… they will likely stay that way. However, the amount of salt, brine, and cinders on the roads from the little snow event Friday night will definitely help things out.

From my vantage point, just plan on having a few extra minutes handy for that Tuesday commute… but I don’t expect widespread travel issues from this event.

School closings? Maybe… the best chance of this is in rural areas where roads are untreated.

We’ll watch it close… but for now just keep in mind that a little snow will fall Monday night… and up to 1″ is expected in most spots. An isolated 1-2″ amount is possible… but the good news is that temperatures will be in the lower 30s, warming during the day Tuesday to near 40 which will mitigate major travel impacts – based on the current available data we have on hand.



About Jared Heil

Meteorologist at WLKY-TV in Louisville, KY. Catch Jared's forecast Saturday nights at 6 & 11PM. Jared Heil has always lived in the Louisville area. He was born and raised in Henryville, Ind., about 20 minutes north of downtown Louisville. Jared is thrilled to be forecasting the weather in his hometown. Jared hopes that his knowledge of the Greater Louisville area, stemming from living here his entire life, will prove to be helpful during times of active weather. You may see Jared at the University of Louisville, where he is continuing his studies in the Atmospheric Science program. Jared is a member of the American Meteorological Society. In his free time, Jared enjoys spending time with his family and friends. He has two golden retrievers, Max and Gordon. Jared says that growing up on his family’s farm led him to appreciate nature in all its forms, likely leading to his passion for weather at a very early age. While he appreciates the occasional thunderstorm, Jared’s favorite weather is sunshine and 80 degrees. Add in the palm trees and it’s easy to see why Jared’s favorite vacation destination is Florida!
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