Tuesday, February 7th
Hello all, what a stretch of mild weather we’ve had recently (heck pretty much all winter !) Well, that’s going to change some as first a fast moving upper disturbance brings us some light snow late tonight into tomorrow early morning – followed by a blast of colder air for the weekend.
First let’s talk about this snow… here’s the NAM chart for tomorrow AM. Track of the vort max (circled area) is a good one to bring us precipitation.
This system does not have much moisture to work with and will be moving quite quickly but it will produce some light amounts of precip on the order of less than a tenth of an inch. We think the precip will begin after 1 or 2 am and either a mix of rain and snow or all rain until the lowest levels of the atmosphere cool below critical. Once the cooling occurs (and it should be quick), we’ll transition over to light snow (south of the parkways this looks to be mainly all light rain). However, ground temperatures are quite warm and the air temperatures should be at or above freezing for this event. Bottom line, not a big snow at all. Most locations (mainly grassy/elevated surfaces) will pick up less than 1 inch (although there could be some 1 inch amounts especially along the I-64 corridor – including Louisville). This light snow should quickly diminish after the morning commute tomorrow and as temperatures warm to near 40, everything will quickly melt off.
By the weekend, a huge trough will develop in the jet across the eastern U.S.. This will allow some colder air to pour into the Ohio Valley for the weekend.
Only 2 times have temperatures during the afternoon hours stayed below freezing this winter !! Well, this coming Saturday could be our 3rd such day.