A Cool Weekend…Warming Again Next Week

Friday, January 27th

Well, after 1 to 2 inches of rain the last 2 days, we will get a chance to dry out as no HEAVY precip is expected the next 4 to 5 days.  A couple of fast moving disturbances will cruise southeast through the polar jet stream and across the Ohio Valley.  As a result, we’ll see chances for just brief and light precipitation this weekend – and especially late tonight into very early Saturday morning.  Here’s the NAM chart valid 7am tomorrow morning… I’ve circled the disturbances that will affect us.

P-type looks to be mainly light rain for Louisville and points south with some snow mixing in before ending northern areas. No accumulation with any snow that does occur  as sfc temps will be well above freezing.  After this this wave of precip ends early tomorrow morning, lots of sunshine will return for a large chunck of the day. It will be breezy and cool with temperatures in the mid 40s by early afternoon – really not too bad for this time of year.

The second disturbance will bring us some clouds later Saturday night into early Sunday morning with a chance for a few flurries – mainly north of Louisville.  By mid/late Sunday morning, skies will clear leaving us with lots of sunshine for Sunday afternoon with temperatures once again climbing into the low/mid 40s.

Monday, the polar jet shifts north of us setting the stage for another warm-up. Temperatures will climb back intothe low/mid 50s for Monday and possibly lower 60s again for next Tuesday.

Where’s winter ???  Ole’ man winter is still on a vacation.  The GFS model is saying winter will return as we head into the second week of February !!  The problem with this solution – 1: it’s the GFS model (not very dependable outside 180hrs – heck, outside 84 hours for that matter !) 2: The GFS has been showing a much colder pattern in its extended forecast time periods for the last 2 months !!  It really hasn’t had a clue this entire winter.  Bottom line, I’m not buying the colder pattern change the GFS is suggesting by the second week of February – not yet at least but we’ll continue to update you.  Have a great weekend all.

Jay C.

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About Jay Cardosi

Chief Meteorologist of WLKY-TV in Louisville, KY. Over 20 years of experience and winner of 4 emmy awards for excellence in weather forecasting and severe weather coverage.
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