Severe Chances Sunday Night…

Saturday, January 21st

Hello all, talk about a crazy weather pattern … and it will continue.  As I was covering the ice last night, Jared put out a real nice explainer on our severe chances for Sunday night. If you are a WLKY viewer or visit WLKY.com on a regular basis then you know we’ve been talking about the prospects of another severe weather outbreak since Thursday. SPC (storm prediction center) is now also on board… Here’s their outlook map and discussion:

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER AND
   MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY OVER
   THE CONUS. AN UPPER TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-UPPER JET/ NOW
   OVER THE CONUS WEST COAST WILL REACH THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY…AND
   EVENTUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER
   MS RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
   CONSIDERABLE FACTOR IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. FARTHER WEST…A SECONDARY
   UPPER TROUGH/STRONG JET ALOFT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST BY EARLY
   MONDAY.
  
   …ARKLATEX/OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH TO MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS…
   AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
   NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY…INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MAY BE
   WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
  
   GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED…AND THAT A
   RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL ONLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE GULF
   COAST REGION WITH THE DAY-1 FRONTAL PASSAGE…A RELATIVELY
   QUICK/QUALITY RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED
   ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER
   TROUGH. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST/BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL BE TO THE
   EAST-SOUTHWARD OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE LAKE
   MI VICINITY BY EARLY MONDAY. NEAR AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING DRY LINE AND
   /MORE SO/ PACIFIC FRONT…INITIAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
   OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH AS EARLY AS LATE
   AFTERNOON /OR MORE LIKELY/ SUNDAY EVENING. MORE DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY
   SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUALLY
   MOISTENS/CAPPING ALOFT ABATES.
  
   GIVEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION…A ROBUST WIND
   FIELD /HIGHLIGHTED BY 90-100 KT AROUND 500 MB AND 55-65 KT WITHIN
   THE LOWEST 1-2 KM/ WILL FAVOR HIGHLY ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH
   ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY EVENING…WITH AN
   ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE EPISODE PLAUSIBLE. CURRENT
   THINKING IS THAT A MULTI-FACETED STORM MODE SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH
   SUNDAY EARLY/MID-EVENING…INCLUDING INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF WHAT WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR
   QUICK-CLUSTERING/LINEAR EVOLUTION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
   ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A PREVALENT QUASI-LINEAR MODE/FAST
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY
   NIGHT…ESPECIALLY FROM MS/AL INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY/LOWER
   OH VALLEY. AS SUCH…THE SEVERE THREAT /IN AN ISOLATED SENSE AT THE
   VERY LEAST/ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS OF MONDAY.
  
   …OH VALLEY…
   FARTHER NORTH…THE EXACT DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
   DESTABILIZATION IS INHERENTLY MORE QUESTIONABLE…ESPECIALLY GIVEN
   RECENT WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
   WHICH PARTIALLY COINCIDES WITH THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW TRACK/BRUNT
   OF DPVA AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE
   TILT. THAT SAID…A ROBUST WIND FIELD/LATE NIGHT DEEPENING PHASE OF
   THE CYCLONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RESPECTABLE THREAT FOR WIND
   DAMAGE/PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES EVEN WHERE NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY
   IS SCANT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

Bottom line, there is significant potential for another severe weather outbreak across out region. Timing: 11pm to 4am Sunday overnight.  Storm mode: A dynamically forced – fast moving squall line with embedded bowing structures capable of straight line wind damage and isolated tornadoes.

we’ll keep you posted…

Jay

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About Jay Cardosi

Chief Meteorologist of WLKY-TV in Louisville, KY. Over 20 years of experience and winner of 4 emmy awards for excellence in weather forecasting and severe weather coverage.
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