Sunday Morning , 11:00am est – January 2nd
Good morning all… hope everyone had a great holiday season. Okay, been looking at the data for a while now and I gotta say… things are looking quite interesting and promising for more very cold air and occasional wintry precip chances.
First will come the cold… The polar vortex now up over St. James Bay will redevelop south in the Great Lakes region by next weekend. A clipper type system will pass north of us Thursday / Thursday night producing light to moderate snows for the northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This system will slow, intensify and become a major winter storm for New England as it gets “caught” by the polar vortex over the Great Lakes. Much colder air will return to our region for Friday and the upcoming weekend with also occasional flurries and snow showers due to weak disturbances passing through our region as they rotate around the polar vortex.
Here’s the charts from the GFS showing today’s St. James Bay PV (polar vortex) and then by next weekend. It’s gonna get cold again !!
So, by next weekend, deep cold (arctic) air will be in place. Now we need western energy to slide in and bring us moisture to interact with the cold air and bring us the wintry precipitation. Will it happen ???? At this point, I think it will – with actually several chances possible because of what is expected to happen in the Pacific and northeast United States.
Look at this chart… thsi is the 8 to 10 day mean from both the ECMWF (left) and the GFS (right). Man-o-man talk about agreement !!!
First thing to notice is the pattern in the west. A huge, closed off high pressure ridge/block is expected to be in place across Alaska/northwest Canada. This will ensure deep, persistant troughing on either side of the block. One of the deep troughs that sets up will be over the western coast of the United States. This will play as our energy source and will “spit” out occasional energy that will translate east. Look at the above chart again… Notice the “Ls” I painted on the both maps over the northeast ? This is our cold air source – essentially the polar vortex which will also act like a block and keep the energy coming out of the western trough on a southward track. Bottom line, as the occasional western energy heads our way, we will have wintry weather chances as the cold air stays in place over the Ohio Valley and eastern United States.
Looking at last night’s 00Z ECMWF, it appears there will be at least a couple chances for some wintry weather over the next 10 to 14 days (especially during the second week of this 2-week period).
Here’s the first… This is the ECMWF chart for next Saturday night.
Notice the orange zone over OK & TX. This system will bring us our first chance (not a sure thing) for wintry weather in the next Saturday night into Sunday time frame.
Here’s the next opportunity… The following charts are for Monday night into Tuesday night (January 10th & 11th).
Notice the energy over NE in the top chart… it slides east/southeast and intensifies over us. This would bring us another chance for wintry weather at this time. Finally – in the chart immediately above, notice the small orange area over California (upper left hand map of the chart). More western energy poised to move east that could bring us more wintry weather in the January 13th to 15th range.
So… it’s not a sure bet but at least the chances for wintry weather look as if they will be going up over the next 1 to 2 weeks. We’ll keep you posted. Have a great Sunday and Go Bears !!