Wintry Weather Chances On The Horizon…

Sunday Morning ,  11:00am est – January 2nd

Good morning all… hope everyone had a great holiday season.  Okay, been looking at the data for a while now and I gotta say… things are looking quite interesting and promising for more very cold air and occasional wintry precip chances.

The Cold…

First will come the cold… The polar vortex now up over St. James Bay will redevelop south in the Great Lakes region by next weekend. A clipper type system will pass north of us Thursday / Thursday night producing light to moderate snows for the northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.  This system will slow, intensify and become a major winter storm for New England as it gets “caught” by the polar vortex over the Great Lakes.  Much colder air will return to our region for Friday and the upcoming weekend with also occasional flurries and snow showers due to weak disturbances passing through our region as they rotate around the polar vortex.

Here’s the charts from the GFS showing today’s St. James Bay PV (polar vortex) and then by next weekend. It’s gonna get cold again !!

 

So, by next weekend, deep cold (arctic) air will be in place. Now we need western energy to slide in and bring us moisture to interact with the cold air and bring us the wintry precipitation. Will it happen ????  At this point, I think it will – with actually several chances possible because of what is expected to happen in the Pacific and northeast United States.

The Energy…

Look at this chart… thsi is the 8 to 10 day mean from both the ECMWF (left) and the GFS (right).  Man-o-man talk about agreement !!!

First thing to notice is the pattern in the west. A huge, closed off high pressure ridge/block is expected to be in place across Alaska/northwest Canada.  This will ensure deep, persistant troughing on either side of the block. One of the deep troughs that sets up will be over the western coast of the United States. This will play as our energy source and will “spit” out occasional energy that will translate east.  Look at the above chart again… Notice the “Ls” I painted on the both maps over the northeast ?  This is our cold air source – essentially the polar vortex which will also act like a block and keep the energy coming out of the western trough on a southward track.  Bottom line, as the occasional western energy heads our way, we will have wintry weather chances as the cold air stays in place over the Ohio Valley and eastern United States.

Specifics…

Looking at last night’s 00Z ECMWF, it appears there will be at least a couple chances for some wintry weather over the next 10 to 14 days (especially during the second week of this 2-week period).

Here’s the first… This is the ECMWF chart for next Saturday night.

Notice the orange zone over OK & TX. This system will bring us our first chance (not a sure thing) for wintry weather in the next Saturday night into Sunday time frame.

Here’s the next opportunity… The following charts are for Monday night into Tuesday night (January 10th & 11th).

 

Notice the energy over NE in the top chart… it slides east/southeast and intensifies over us. This would bring us another chance for wintry weather at this time.  Finally – in the chart immediately above, notice the small orange area over California (upper left hand map of the chart). More western energy poised to move east that could bring us more wintry weather in the January 13th to 15th range.

So… it’s not a sure bet but at least the chances for wintry weather look as if they will be going up over the next 1 to 2 weeks.  We’ll keep you posted. Have a great Sunday and Go Bears !!

Jay

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About Jay Cardosi

Chief Meteorologist of WLKY-TV in Louisville, KY. Over 20 years of experience and winner of 4 emmy awards for excellence in weather forecasting and severe weather coverage.
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15 Responses to Wintry Weather Chances On The Horizon…

  1. Babs (Floyds Knobs) says:

    Thanks for the in depth look at the coming weeks! Can’t wait to see if it works out for us snow lovers!

    We are going to need some snow to keep us busy as the football season sadly winds down! :(

  2. Jason says:

    Jay,
    Everything sounds great except for that Go Bears part! It should say Go Packers :) Bring on the snow

  3. Dan B says:

    Love the sound of that forecast Jay. Thanks for posting and THINK SNOW!

    Dan from Chatzy.

  4. bigdawg says:

    What a great Sunday it is chilly, sunny and we have several chances for snow coming up. And Da BEARS are beating the pack at the half.

  5. AJ says:

    At least the suns back seems like it been a long time since we had a good sunny day like it was today. Also in about 4 or 5 days the sun angle will hit 30 degrees altitude so its heading its way back north from the southern hemisphere. Also have you all heard about the deadly cold snap in India heres the article from The Australian Weather Channels website.

    “At least eight people have died in freezing weather in northern India.

    The temperature dropped to minus 23 degrees Celsius in the Himalayan town of Leh and the main highway to Jammu and Kashmir was re-opened after being closed because of thick ice.

    The freezing conditions have brought misery to hundreds of thousands of homeless people in northern India.

    Five people died from the cold in Utter Pradesh, three others were found dead in Kashmir.

    Poor families have gathered in government shelters in the capital after several days of fog and rain.

    Temperatures have also been below freezing in the desert state of Rajasthan.”

  6. KW says:

    DA BEARS!!!!

  7. Josh says:

    Jay,

    Very nice post except the last 2 words…. The Pack is going to beat down the Bears!!

    Josh

  8. Mark Zirnheld says:

    YUK!!

  9. sweetjane says:

    Well dang Jay, the only thing that could have made all that sound better would have been a chance for snow everyday in the 14 day. Now that would have made my New Year begin even better. Hope this is the year of multiple and deep snows.

  10. rake says:

    Jay good post and informational. The SW lows will have no other place to go but straight east riding the southern Jet along the northern, I agree lots of potential here and beyond the 14 even. May take us into Feb!
    Rake

  11. KateC says:

    Jay, hope your New Year’s was perfect!

    Loving the sound of this! I want to drag out the sleds…

    • Jay Cardosi says:

      Hi KateC…
      thanks, I had a great holiday season. Hope yours was a good one as well. Upcoming pattern looks promising – we’ll see

  12. Sean C says:

    Great read.

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