Tuesday Morning… Ohio Valley Winter Storm Update.

Hello all, prospects for an Ohio Valley major winter storm continue to rise for the coming weekend.  A very strong jet will carve out a huge trough in the upper atmosphere across the middle sections of the United States this weekend. As a result, an intense storm system will form across the middle MS valley and track east, northeast through the Ohio Valley later Saturday into Sunday.   If you read my post from yesterday, I talked about the track I preferred – i.e. the track that took the surface low along the Ohio River and then east northeast. I still like that track and the 06Z run fromthe GFS and the 00Z run from the ECMWF ensemble strongly support this track as well.  Here are those plots …

And now the GFS…

Both solutions paint a major winter storm for the Ohio Valley!  The GFS’s solution is a bit farther south and would likely mean more of a wintry mix than rain at the start transitioning to heavy snow during the overnight hours Saturday and into Sunday.  The ECMWF’s ensemble solution is a touch farther north and would mean rain across our area Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening with a transition to snow (likely accumulating) overnight Saturday into Sunday.  In addition, the sfc system will be rapidly deepening Saturday into Sunday. This looks like a possible thundersnow event especially for areas just to our north (i.e. somewhere in the central IN to central Ohio region) where the intense WAA (warm air advection) pattern is occurring but in locations where it will still be cold enough for all snow. In addition, as the sfc low rapidly deepens, the wind field will also dramatically increase. Bottom line, blizzard / near blizzard conditions could result with the best chances for this occurring across IN and OH… If (again IF) the 06Z GFS solution were to verify, near blizzard conditions could also occur in our area – I’m not yet sold on this southern solution that the 06Z run of the GFS is painting simply because the model has a cold bias to it and as a result, many times it places systems too far south (especially when the event is outside 84 hours).  

Update… 12z GFS in coming in and is indeed trending north more in line like the 00Z ECMWF ensemble.  This would still give us a very wintry Sunday with snow (some accumulations) strong winds and cold temperatures, but if I’m in St. Louis, Springfield -IL, Indy – and points east, northeast………… I’d be lickin’ my chops right about now.   As you know, a lot can (and likely will) change before the actual event so as usual we will watch it for you and have updates as new info comes in.

Jay

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About Jay Cardosi

Chief Meteorologist of WLKY-TV in Louisville, KY. Over 20 years of experience and winner of 4 emmy awards for excellence in weather forecasting and severe weather coverage.
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14 Responses to Tuesday Morning… Ohio Valley Winter Storm Update.

  1. Candi says:

    Do you think Spencer Co will get a large amount of snow..

  2. RS Louisville says:

    With GFS being consistant for two days and now UKMET is agreeing. DGEX is a more southern track on the latest run. Jay, I can see us getting alot of snow! In about 36 hours we’ll know for sure but I’m betting on a ton.

  3. anthony says:

    hey jay
    im likeing this winter storm talking but what about here in vincennes,in

  4. Rake says:

    Jay I give you permission to use the term MOVE and actually wish you would. I offered it to Belski last year and he was going to use it but never got a chance. THIS is your chance. And about potentially 1/3 of your chance for a win on the snow bet right down the drain!
    This thing has potential to be an Historic Ohio Valley Event or H.O.V.E.!
    Come on you and the Met team have been discussing this and the public has no clue as to the potential this event REALLY has. Again, “you can please yourself, but somebody’s gonna get it..da da da.”
    RM

    • Jay Cardosi says:

      hey my friend !! no doubt, potential is huge with this thing mainly because this storm is expected to explode near our area . It WILL bury somebody under 12 to 18 inches of snow and blizzard conditions and at this time, I do think that’ll be along the St. Louis to Indy corridor. Still looks very wintry around here once we turn over with strong winds – dropping temps and light snow – and even if we only get a couple of inches on the backside – it’ll still look and feel like the frozen tundra.

  5. christyb says:

    Jay,
    Didn’t you mean to say…prospects for a Major Ohio Valley Event…(aka M.O.V.E)

  6. feederband says:

    Dry slot anyone? I have heard the latest shows a trend toward the river so not so much snow for us. Remember where we are. The big “Donut Hole” known as LouisvilleMetro.

  7. sweetjane says:

    OK Jay it is time to tell us what you really think will happen with this system. Do you have a gut feelin on it at all.
    I personally feel like this on may be it. You can feel something in the air and see it in the models.
    I really wanna see a big one before the Holidays. See if you can’t help us out with it.
    Warmin up the Snow Train.

    • Jay Cardosi says:

      Hi Sweetjane…

      right now, I’m thinking an Ohio river track with rain dveloping Saturday afternoon / evening… changing to snow overnight Saturday. Periods of light snow on Sunday with some accumulations likely (not the big stuff) I think that’ll be north of us but it still looks really wintry around here on Sunday and Sunday evening. We’ll watch it. Once we get inside the 84 hr window, we’ll get a lot more serious in really trying to pin down the storm track.

      • sweetjane says:

        Oh Jay you are talking straight to the old ticker when you mention accumulations. No matter how big or small a true snow lover will love them all.
        I hate to wish away time but am very excited to see how this all plays out.
        Thanks again for all of wlky and their hard working Mets.
        Stop by to visit us some time over ae Chatzy there is arm-chair weathermen and weatherwomen everywhere.

  8. Adam says:

    Well we are still at least 96 hours out, a lot can and probably will change….

  9. Jay Cardosi says:

    That’s correct Josh, the more northward track… the less snow here. It really looks like St. Louis – Kokomo – Detroit is the axis for ground zero when it comes to an all out huge winter storm and possible blizzard conditions. But even if the storm does take this track – we would also get some snow in the wrap around. One thing is for sure – no matter how much snow falls (that’s yet to be determined of course), it’s looking very wintry around here for Sunday

  10. Josh says:

    Hi Jay,

    I’m not liking the new update. The morth north means less snow for us correct? I’m going to say at least my area (Charlestown and Jeff area) see at best 3 inches and thats probably going to high. :( Booooo

    Josh

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