Snow Showers Friday? Another Warm-Up?

5PM Monday
(edit to add 2-week forecast at 6:30PM – see below)

Good Monday everyone. Hope your work week is starting off well.

What a loaded headline for this post… huh? Well, I saw many of you mentioning the potential for snow showers mentioned by the NWS on their forecast pages in today’s forecast package. I do see that they have taken the potential for flakes out of their evening forecast… and that’s a pretty good idea at this point considering the circumstances:

To start, the sprinkles or very light showers that are remotely possible Friday, at best… could be sparked by fairly steep lapse rates beneath the upper low pressure that will be overhead (in other words, temperatures will be falling as you go up in the atmosphere at a rapid rate). This creates instability that the showers may form from – in the heat of the day. This will happen when temperatures are well into the 40s… meaning no snowflakes here. Then… as we see temperatures fall in the evening and the sun sets, the showers should end before we get close to what would be a critical temperature for snowflakes to make it to the ground. So, at this point, while I say nothing’s impossible, I’d put the odds of any given location seeing a snowflake Friday or Friday night at about 2% right now… and that’s optimistic!!

So, it’s going to be chilly to wrap up the week. Folks working outside will be bundled up, no doubt, with daytime temperatures in the 40s feeling more like the upper 30s to near 40 under a stiff breeze at times. While I do realize many like the chillier weather and it’s something highly anticipated after our hot summer… still others are always looking forward to the next warm spell.

If you read my post from Saturday night you saw my thoughts on a potential warm up around next Monday – Wednesday. That still looks to be in the cards… and the ECMWF (to a lesser agree but still mild – GFS) show temperatures easily in the upper 60s or eclipsing the 70-degree mark early-to-mid week next week. Maybe it’s Indian Summer? :)

Upper-Level Ridge Returns To The Eastern U.S. Next Week

Note the large upper ridge that develops east of the Mississippi R. next week. This is from the typically reliable ECMWF ensemble model. It also paints a brisk south wind for next Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of a slow-moving storm system in the Plains…

Warmer Weather Makes A Comeback

That map above shows temperatures easily in the lower 70s next Wednesday. We’ll have to see if it comes true.

So here’s the good news. Folks who want a cool down will get it for the latter part of the week and the weekend. After that, everyone who likes warmth will see their share (as it looks now) for next week.

Here’s Jay’s 2-Week Trend:

Latest 2-Week Outlook

Have a good evening!

–JH

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About Jared Heil

Meteorologist at WLKY-TV in Louisville, KY. Catch Jared's forecast Saturday nights at 6 & 11PM. Jared Heil has always lived in the Louisville area. He was born and raised in Henryville, Ind., about 20 minutes north of downtown Louisville. Jared is thrilled to be forecasting the weather in his hometown. Jared hopes that his knowledge of the Greater Louisville area, stemming from living here his entire life, will prove to be helpful during times of active weather. You may see Jared at the University of Louisville, where he is continuing his studies in the Atmospheric Science program. Jared is a member of the American Meteorological Society. In his free time, Jared enjoys spending time with his family and friends. He has two golden retrievers, Max and Gordon. Jared says that growing up on his family’s farm led him to appreciate nature in all its forms, likely leading to his passion for weather at a very early age. While he appreciates the occasional thunderstorm, Jared’s favorite weather is sunshine and 80 degrees. Add in the palm trees and it’s easy to see why Jared’s favorite vacation destination is Florida!
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3 Responses to Snow Showers Friday? Another Warm-Up?

  1. Adam Stephenson says:

    Thanks for the clarification Jared. Are you going to publish a winter forecast or are you leaving that up to Jay?

    • Jared Heil says:

      Hey there Adam. Jay will posting the WLKY Winter forecast soon… and I’ll probably have a look at it as well… when I get a chance. The anatomy of a winter forecast is very complex and takes quite a bit of research – and it takes quite a bit of educated guessing (not to mention some luck!)

      We’ll see what we come up with!

      Jared

  2. Ronda says:

    I’ll take a 2 percent chance. Better than nothing. Also Jared, see what you can do about getting rid of that warm up next week.LOL! Thanks

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