(edit to add 2-week forecast at 6:30PM – see below)
Good Monday everyone. Hope your work week is starting off well.
What a loaded headline for this post… huh? Well, I saw many of you mentioning the potential for snow showers mentioned by the NWS on their forecast pages in today’s forecast package. I do see that they have taken the potential for flakes out of their evening forecast… and that’s a pretty good idea at this point considering the circumstances:
To start, the sprinkles or very light showers that are remotely possible Friday, at best… could be sparked by fairly steep lapse rates beneath the upper low pressure that will be overhead (in other words, temperatures will be falling as you go up in the atmosphere at a rapid rate). This creates instability that the showers may form from – in the heat of the day. This will happen when temperatures are well into the 40s… meaning no snowflakes here. Then… as we see temperatures fall in the evening and the sun sets, the showers should end before we get close to what would be a critical temperature for snowflakes to make it to the ground. So, at this point, while I say nothing’s impossible, I’d put the odds of any given location seeing a snowflake Friday or Friday night at about 2% right now… and that’s optimistic!!
So, it’s going to be chilly to wrap up the week. Folks working outside will be bundled up, no doubt, with daytime temperatures in the 40s feeling more like the upper 30s to near 40 under a stiff breeze at times. While I do realize many like the chillier weather and it’s something highly anticipated after our hot summer… still others are always looking forward to the next warm spell.
If you read my post from Saturday night you saw my thoughts on a potential warm up around next Monday – Wednesday. That still looks to be in the cards… and the ECMWF (to a lesser agree but still mild – GFS) show temperatures easily in the upper 60s or eclipsing the 70-degree mark early-to-mid week next week. Maybe it’s Indian Summer? :)
Note the large upper ridge that develops east of the Mississippi R. next week. This is from the typically reliable ECMWF ensemble model. It also paints a brisk south wind for next Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of a slow-moving storm system in the Plains…
That map above shows temperatures easily in the lower 70s next Wednesday. We’ll have to see if it comes true.
So here’s the good news. Folks who want a cool down will get it for the latter part of the week and the weekend. After that, everyone who likes warmth will see their share (as it looks now) for next week.
Here’s Jay’s 2-Week Trend:
Have a good evening!