Potential For Some Severe Storms Exists Monday…

12PM Saturday 4/14/12

Well, it’s certainly a good weekend to NOT be in the Plains as a big tornado day seems to be shaping up from Nebraska to Texas. Around here, today’s shower and storm chances will continue to be focused along and north of the river, but most if not all will remain non-severe. Heavy downpours and lightning are the big threats with today’s t’showers.

What a windy and very warm day setting up for tomorrow folks!

Windy, Warm Sunday

Today’s showers will lift well north into MI/OH tomorrow with warm air flooding in behind it. 80s (perhaps mid 80s) and a stiff south wind will make it feel like a blast furnace after our recent cool spell!

The pollen count will also be off the charts tomorrow…  keep that in mind.

That leads me to the subject of this discussion.

Tomorrow, the SPC has a slight risk of thunderstorms to our west… here’s their map. This forecasts severe weather from 8AM Sunday through 8AM Monday…

SPC Severe Outlook Sunday

Note that there is NO risk of thunderstorms for our viewing area on this outlook. Well, that would be correct for Sunday and much of Sunday night, but considering this outlook is valid through 8AM Monday leaves me wondering how that is possible. Our most recent models do bring us a round of rain and storms inside the viewing area after 4AM Monday. IF this is the correct timing for storms to get here, they would be arriving with some pretty solid potential for at least gusty winds. Here’s why…

- Temperatures well in the 60s and dew points at or above 60 supportive of thunderstorms to continue developing and growing (instability)

- Models tend to under-forecast temperatures and there is a possibility we don’t fall much below 70 Sunday night

- Wind shear is very high, both in the low layers and through the depth of the cloud

The three above notes point to a threat for severe weather early Monday if the storms indeed get here at that point in time. Some models have a later timing, which may promote storm development in our eastern counties Monday afternoon. BUT by then our strongest wind energy will be leaving, so that would be a better case scenario. It’s just too early to tell. We should get a better idea today.

So to summarize, not set in stone yet but I do see the potential for some severe weather around here sometime Monday… with the best chances west of I-65 closer to the better instability and wind shear. We will keep watching and update you as we get closer.

For now, keep an eye on the weather reports from the Plains today because that’s where all the attention needs to go for now. Hoping for the best for those folks!

–Jared

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Cool For Now… But It’s Going To Warm Up!

Northwesterly winds will bring in cooler weather with highs in the 50s through tomorrow. Morning lows will also be chilly tonight and tomorrow night. Early gardeners beware, with lows cold enough for frost or a light freeze, especially outside of the Metro. The best chances for frost comes our way tomorrow night. Warmer weather builds in late week and into the weekend, with a chance of showers Friday.

80s return this weekend!

–Jared

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Easter Forecast; Cool-Down Coming

8:20PM Saturday

I don’t know if we can ask for better April weather than what we saw on our Saturday! A weak front passes by tonight with a stray shower possible… most areas stay dry. Morning clouds Sunday will clear quickly for any Easter plans. Enjoy a breezy but mild afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Another cold front passes by Monday, with a few clouds along it early in the day. By afternoon, the big story will be windy conditions with mild temperatures and lots of sun. Expect quite a bit of sunshine for Tuesday through Thursday as well, but the big change will be the chilly temperatures that will nose in. Highs in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday will be coupled with lows in the 30s. Get the jackets out again! It won’t last too long; a distinct warming trend heads our way after some showers Friday as it looks like 70s and 80s are heading back in our direction next weekend.

–Jared

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Severe Storm Threat This Evening

10:40AM 3/30/12

We have been watching the potential for some strong storms tonight as a cold front pushes into the region. Consistently the models have been breaking out some storms on this front … though there are many questions as to just how strong they will become.

Model Forecast Radar This Evening 9PM ET

This forecast model also shows the storms, developing to our northwest by 8 or so tonight. These storms may try to congeal into a broken line and head southeastward into our viewing area.

Best estimate on timing for our area for severe chances is from 7PM to Midnight.

As the storms head southeastward, the instability will be waning and the wind energy associated with the system will be departing, so I think the best threat for severe weather will be in the early part of this time period. With this in mind, the best severe potential will likely reside in our northern and northeastern half of the WLKY viewing area this evening.

SPC Severe Outlook

The SPC has placed our entire area in a severe risk today, although their percentage risk assessment places that northeastern third to half in the higher risk zone. I agree with that at this time.

Threats with any storms this evening will be gusty straight-line winds up to 65 mph, some hail, and frequent lightning in addition to heavy rainfall.

TORNADO RISK…

SPC Tornado Threat

The SPC also highlights our northeastern communities in a 5% tornado risk. With the recent tornadoes, I want to remind everyone that the tornado risk on March 2nd when Henryville and other communities were hit by an EF4 was 30%! So, much much lower risk today. I’m really not that concerned about a tornado threat, based on the latest model data. Wind shear (veering wind direction with height) is very weak today compared to our recent weather events. BUT, don’t be surprised if a storm or two tries to rotate this evening, thus I wouldn’t rule out a stray tornado warning. Though I don’t expect this to be a big problem, remember to always take tornado warnings seriously.

We will, as always, watch it closely for you.
–Jared

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Storm Chances Later Today

Wednesday, March  28th

Hello all,   A nice morning will likely turn a bit stormy later today for some – not all. An upper level disturbance is passing well to our north across southern Canada. There is an associated cold front extending south across Indiana which will continue to track southeast across the region today and during the time of maximum heating.  Here’s the NAM’s instability field valid 2pm this afternoon.  Notice the best instability from about the Ohio River and points south.

Here’s the latest VIS satellite (nid morning Wednesday). Notice the band of clouds north. Even a some “bumpy” appearences showing up along the band of clouds.  This is showing embedded towering cumulus.

 As the this band of moisture (the front) continues to work south this afternoon, it will be working into an increasingly unstable atmosphere.  As a result, thunderstorms should increase along the front this afternoon.  It appears the best chances for storm initiation should occur very close to – or just south of the Ohio River during the mid afternoon hours of today.  The storms will then settle south and likely be south of our region by evening.

There will be the potential for a few strong/severe cells along the line.  Looking at the wind fields would support some of the stronger cells having the potential to create hail and strong, straight lined wind gusts.  The tornado potential with this system looks extremely low.

Here’s SPC’s severe discussion:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK    0731 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012       VALID 281300Z – 291200Z       …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION    INTO CENTRAL KY…       …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS/MO/OK/AR…       …MID ATLANTIC INTO OH VALLEY…    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING    ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT    CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NY/PA INTO SOUTHERN IND.  EARLY VISIBLE    SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE    FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.  MEANWHILE…    STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT 50S    DEWPOINTS OVER THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  THE END    RESULT WILL BE AN AXIS OF MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY EXTENDING    FROM CENTRAL PA/VA INTO TN/KY.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER NY/PA    WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AND INTENSIFY LATER TODAY.  STEEP    LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES…SUFFICIENT CAPE…AND RATHER STRONG LOW/MID    LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE    HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOON    AFTER SUNSET.

Jay C

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